“I don’t make it alone. We’ve all made it, with our heroines who gave us our homeland, with our mothers, our daughters, and our granddaughters.”

Mexico’s political landscape is undergoing a transformative shift with Claudia Sheinbaum assuming office as the nation’s first female president. Known for her deep roots in environmental science and progressive leadership, Sheinbaum brings a bold new vision for the country—one focused on tackling climate change, reforming the economy, and enhancing Mexico’s standing on the global stage. As she steps into leadership, Sheinbaum faces the challenge of navigating the complex legacy left by her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), while charting a course toward a greener, more sustainable future.

Inheriting a complex legacy

AMLO’s presidency was marked by both significant social progress and political controversy. His policies, such as pension increases and cash transfers, alleviated poverty for many Mexicans, but his governance, particularly in the areas of security and human rights, drew criticism. Critics argue that AMLO’s leadership weakened democratic institutions and failed to adequately address the systemic violence and political polarization facing the country. As Sheinbaum takes office, she faces the dual challenge of continuing AMLO’s social welfare programs while confronting the deep-rooted issues of insecurity and human rights abuses.

A new vision for Mexico

Sheinbaum’s government program is based on a set of 100 key promises aimed at creating a fairer, more sustainable Mexico. Her administration will prioritize protecting human rights, freedom of expression, and citizens’ right to assemble. Sheinbaum’s approach focuses on reducing inequality, advancing democratic reforms, and promoting transparency. She is committed to tackling corruption, modernizing public services, and ensuring that the government is more accountable to the people.

Central to her vision are education and healthcare. Sheinbaum has pledged to guarantee free higher education, expand scholarships, and improve healthcare access for all Mexicans. Her government will also address gender-based violence, promote gender equality, and protect vulnerable populations. On the economic front, Sheinbaum aims to strengthen agricultural self-sufficiency and promote sustainable energy solutions, all while supporting critical infrastructure projects such as the Mayan Train, rural transport modernization, and national energy initiatives.

Economic challenges and nearshoring

A key part of Sheinbaum’s economic strategy is the emphasis on nearshoring—attracting manufacturing jobs to Mexico as global companies seek to relocate operations closer to the U.S. This trend has already benefitted the country by boosting GDP growth and per capita income, though challenges remain. To continue attracting investment, Sheinbaum will need to address issues like rule of law, competitiveness, and infrastructure. Mexico’s increased manufacturing activity requires sufficient power generation and clean water access, making these areas a priority for the new administration.

At the same time, Sheinbaum must carefully manage Mexico’s fiscal situation. With the government deficit expected to reach a record high of 5.9% of GDP in 2024, maintaining fiscal discipline while supporting higher wages, social programs, and infrastructure investment will be a balancing act. While Sheinbaum and her finance minister, Rogelio Ramirez, have pledged fiscal prudence, constitutional reforms—particularly those proposed by AMLO—could make it difficult to achieve the necessary fiscal consolidation.

The green vision

One of Sheinbaum’s most defining commitments is her focus on environmental sustainability. Having championed green initiatives during her time as mayor of Mexico City, Sheinbaum is now set to reduce the country’s reliance on fossil fuels and significantly increase the use of renewable energy. Her ambitious goal is for 45% of Mexico’s energy to come from renewable sources by 2030, a crucial step toward reducing the country’s carbon footprint.

Beyond energy, Sheinbaum’s green agenda includes expanding solar panel programs and promoting electric transportation to address energy inequality and improve environmental health. With 92% of Mexicans concerned about the impacts of climate change, Sheinbaum’s policies resonate with the public. Mexico is particularly vulnerable to climate change’s effects, such as extreme weather events, droughts, and food insecurity, and Sheinbaum’s leadership in global environmental forums like the G20 positions Mexico as a responsible player in international climate action.

Navigating political and economic challenges

Sheinbaum’s environmental focus is clear, but she will also have to navigate significant political and economic challenges. AMLO’s policies, particularly his state-driven energy projects and limited international engagement, have left Mexico in a tense position with global trade and security partners, including the United States. Sheinbaum must rebuild these relationships, balancing international cooperation with her green agenda and commitment to national sovereignty.

Her government will also need to maintain economic stability amid global uncertainties. Trade relations, security cooperation, and judicial reforms are all under scrutiny, and Sheinbaum will need to steer the country through these challenges to ensure that her progressive policies do not hinder Mexico’s economic growth.

Image credits: RODRIGO JARDÓN/Wikimedia Commons

What lies ahead for Sheinbaum?

Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidency represents a unique opportunity for Mexico to embrace a sustainable future while addressing the political and social challenges of the past. With a focus on renewable energy, social welfare, and anti-corruption efforts, Sheinbaum is positioned as a transformative figure in Mexican politics. However, the road ahead is uncertain. Her ability to deliver on her ambitious promises while navigating the complexities of her predecessor’s legacy will determine whether her vision for a greener, fairer Mexico can be realized.

Sheinbaum’s commitment to global cooperation and green energy positions her as a leader capable of elevating Mexico’s role on the world stage. Yet, balancing the aspirations of a greener future with the realities of Mexico’s economic and political landscape will be a significant challenge. The coming years will reveal whether Sheinbaum can successfully navigate this complex terrain.

A turning point for Mexico

As Mexico grapples with food and water insecurity, exacerbated by the impacts of climate change, Sheinbaum’s leadership becomes all the more critical. Public support for climate action in Mexico is overwhelming—88% of Mexicans consider climate change a top priority—reinforcing the urgency of her green agenda. Her presidency marks a turning point, with the potential to redefine Mexico’s future by aligning environmental sustainability with social equity and global cooperation.

However, the political and economic uncertainty surrounding Sheinbaum’s administration is already affecting the market. Analysts predict that the recent sweeping victory by Sheinbaum and the Morena Party will heighten fears over constitutional reforms, which could hinder fiscal consolidation and make it harder for Mexico to attract capital. This uncertainty is expected to put upward pressure on interest rates and credit spreads in the region, while the Mexican Peso and equities may face downward pressure. In the near term, the markets will closely watch Sheinbaum’s ability to manage these challenges while keeping her promises of economic and environmental transformation.